What Makes People Buy That Car?

Marketing Trends in the Auto Industry, a Photo Essay

William Sundwick

They were called “horseless carriages” for a reason. The earliest automobiles had open bodies fashioned from wood, sometimes with a folding top, like popular carriage designs of the time.

Soon, however, there emerged more luxurious closed bodies, often only the passenger cabin, with the driver still exposed to the elements. But these “cabs” were generally considered to occupy only the top end of the market, or livery vehicles.

The Model T Ford then created a “mass market” for automobiles in the United States. But roughly by the end of the First World War, closed bodies became more commonplace – even for the Model T. Ford had competitors by this time, many makes were marketed to less than upper-class buyers. And, as the maturing auto industry moved through the 1920s, there seemed to be a stock selection of body styles. There were coupes (with or without jump seats in the rear), sedans (two or four doors, but with full back seat), town cars and limousines for the chauffeur-driven elite (passenger

compartments separated from driver by full glass partition), and roadsters (no back seat, except possible “rumble seat”) or phaetons for the “open air” crowd (old style “touring” bodies with four doors and spacious rear seat).

These different body types appealed to folks now driving longer distances, often between cities. Both comfort and reliability became the most common marketing pitches for all auto-makers. In the U.S., General Motors, Chrysler Corporation, Nash, Hudson,

Studebaker and Packard all laid claim to significant portions of the market in the ‘20s and ‘30s. (Ford, the originator of the market, was overtaken in market share by both GM and Chrysler by the time World War II began).

Closed bodies (coupes and sedans) dominated the market from the onset of the Great Depression in 1930. Comfort and quiet, along with new features like radios, heaters, and window cranks made the passenger cabin a much more parlor-like experience, even in the popular-price segment where Chevrolet and Plymouth became the new market leaders.

Styling of auto bodies underwent some drastic changes in the 1930s. It was not just the enclosed quiet of the cabin that characterized cars of that decade, but major marketing initiatives around

“streamlining” and appearance of speed (if not reality) pitched by all manufacturers as a desirable look of the future. As always, the future was more appealing to younger buyers. And, younger buyers were coming in greater numbers as we approached entry into World War II. The most extreme futuristic streamlining, like Chrysler’s “Airflow” design of 1934, seemed avant-garde by the standards of the time.

Through the decade, running boards gradually disappeared from all cars, pontoon fenders with fared-in headlights became the norm, smooth curves replaced boxy shapes in all body styles. Horsepower ratings also began to be advertised during the 1930s and became a major marketing strategy after the war.

Tasteful, curvy streamlining and pontoon fenders began to fade post-war, as a brash new generation of designers took over in Detroit. GM’s Harley Earl (the dean of that earlier generation of stylists) retired, and people like

Raymond Loewy (Studebaker fame) took his place.

While a spacious, comfortable cabins continued to be important to the post-war auto buyer, new demands from the growing popularity of family vacations by car took on more importance. Trunks had to accommodate ever more luggage – not to mention golf clubs! This, in turn, caused another aesthetic shift in the appearance of auto bodies. Long hoods (to accommodate powerful V8 engines) were supplemented by long trunks. Cars got very large. The cabin area, now diminished as a percentage of the overall length, was made to seem bigger by much more glass. Wrap-around windshields and rear windows. The literal disappearance of side window frames (when

lowered) made the “hardtop” body style (two or four door) the most popular configuration in the ‘50s and ‘60s.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, there was a reaction to the apparent excess of the huge cars, powerful engines, and lots of chrome. Beginning even before the war, a niche market for imported small cars (usually from Britain, like Austin, Morris, MG) started to develop, especially in coastal cities. By the early ‘50s, this market had grown enough that many British automakers were equipping their export

vehicles with left-hand drive, aimed specifically at the U.S. and Canadian markets.

While the price of gasoline was never a constraint in the U.S., as it was for the native designers in Europe (not to mention their narrower urban streetscapes), the general cultural reaction against bigness and flashiness grew to such an extent that Detroit had to respond. But, since product development cycles in the auto industry are attenuated over several years, the new Detroit “compacts” didn’t arrive until 1960. By that time, Volkswagen Beetles had become a common sight in most of America. Rambler led the way somewhat earlier and could show a growing market share in the mid-to-late ‘50s as proof.

Keeping up with changing tastes of a young, more suburban, market in the fifties and sixties led to some important trends. Two body types that grew into an impressive social mainstay were convertibles and station wagons. Both body styles imbued a certain social status to their owners – convertibles implied youth, daring,

and enough affluence to have one car (of two) dedicated more to fun than practicality. Wagons frequently had three rows of seating,
for growing numbers of kids, not necessarily your own, but the neighbors’! For a while, it was thought that kids enjoyed facing the rear window in that third-row seat, although some safety concerns were later raised about that configuration. Even without the third row, wagons were great cargo carriers -- virtual car-truck hybrids! They were great for suburban shopping and family vacations, able to accommodate long things, like surfboards or plywood paneling for the basement.

Automobile marketing became more mysterious, at least in the eyes of this observer, in the 1970s.  Convertibles began to disappear – supposedly killed off by the insurance industry. And, while big cars with big engines continued to dominate Detroit, small imports retained a large following. What is strange, both for the domestic bodies and imported offerings, is the popularity of two-door models. For some reason, and I’ve been unable to find a psychological study explaining it, two-door bodies

across all segments of the market, outsold four-door bodies. Why? What possible advantage would buyers of that era see in having only two doors? Ingress and egress to the rear seat was harder. But even large cars with much rear seat leg and hip room, seemed to have popular two-door variants. Many of the two-door cars had tiny rear quarter windows, giving rear seat passengers privacy, perhaps, but decreasing visibility for driver. It seemed a perverse design trend, and it continued into the 1980s.

The coming of the BMW (and others, both foreign and domestic) four-door sport sedans in the ‘90s effectively killed that mystery market for two-door cars. There was no longer any connection

between “sportiness” and having only two doors.

Of course, throughout the history of the automobile, there have been many smaller niche markets: electric cars in the teens, sports cars from the 1920s on, drag racing wannabes in the muscle car era of the ‘60s and early ‘70s, and early 4x4s (Jeeps and pickups). Trucks moved from a rural niche market for private transportation into the mainstream with the coming of the smaller Japanese pickups in the 1980s.


The original Jeep was the first SUV. But Toyota, Nissan, then GM, Ford, and Chrysler all discovered

these truck-based wagons. The Chevy Suburban had been around since before the war but was relegated to one of those niche markets until suddenly, in the mid-70s, competition blossomed. Jeep Cherokees, Chevy Blazers, Ford Broncos, Toyota 4-Runners and Nissan Pathfinders all roared into the 1980s as the new best sellers.

 They were, indeed, trucks. They were all built on a pickup frame, with a body (two-door at first, later expanded to four doors) that
included a bouncy, but roomy, rear seat.

As trucks developed their own market segment, complete with luxo-cruisers, monster off-road vehicles, and compacts for urban living, it occurred to the intrepid auto designers that a true car-truck hybrid might fuse the enthusiasm of the SUV buyer with the family buyer who had previously settled for a matronly minivan. The “crossover” was thus born.

2018 Buick Enclave

2018 Honda CR-V

Crossovers emerged in a variety of form factors, from large three-row quasi-minivans (Buick Enclave, Toyota Highlander, Honda Pilot), to compact two-row versions (Toyota RAV-4, Honda CR-V, Subaru Forester), to sub-compact little cars (Fiat 500X, Honda HR-V, Ford EcoSport). Compact crossovers are now the hottest selling market segment of all, with larger and smaller versions close
behind.

2019 Ford EcoSport

It seems that a combination of a “high ride” (you look down on traffic) and the practicality of a large open cargo area (accommodates bulky items) are the main selling points. The main distinction between a crossover and an SUV is that the crossover always has a unitized body-frame, like other car bodies, but unlike the separate platform frame of truck-based SUVs. Hence, the ride is more car-like.

This is where we have come after more than 100 years of automotive market segmentation and design whims. Practicality combined with comfort and freedom have always ruled the marketplace. Of course, my unsupported impressions are subject to dispute. I’ve always been partial to the Harley Earl period at General Motors, myself!

Quest for the Perfect Car

Five Step Process for Car Shopping

William Sundwick

We buy a car approximately every five-to-seven years. In a two-car family, that means cars generally sit in our driveway for a minimum of 11 years. Maybe as many as 15 years.

So, car shopping is a big deal. It happens rarely and amounts to a major life event. Typically, it is attenuated over two or three years.

In my family, I play the role of car buff and market analyst. My wife takes the role of sensible consumer making a sizable investment in our future. Thus, we are now involved in year two of our quest for the perfect replacement for our 2007 Toyota Highlander Hybrid.

The old car still has some miles left in it (~86,000 now), so this quest could continue longer. But we both feel it is time to start thinking of a successor. We have visions of ever higher repair costs, and many small, unsightly dings and scrapes are now marring a body we no longer think deserves body shop treatment. The fabric interior is stained with accumulated grime and wear. We replaced a windshield at Safelite a few years ago with an inferior-spec non-polarized version.

Any new car we buy will have an updated audio system, with infotainment, more active safety measures, and heated leather seating. All constituting a significant upgrade – not to mention that it WILL BE NEW!

But, will we lose anything? To ensure that we don’t, I have created a spreadsheet (2019 is its third model year tab) detailing specs and review notes from the automotive press on all possible replacement candidates in the hottest segment of the auto market – compact two-row crossover/SUVs. This is the segment inhabited back in 2007 by our Highlander, and it is even more popular now, with more competitors.

There are 15 possible choices for the 2019 model year (down from 2018 and 2017 because of more stringent filtering). The threshold filters this year are measures of fuel economy, cargo volume, and price for the lowest acceptable level of equipment, based on manufacturers’ online “build-and-price” sites. Fuel economy must reach a minimum of 27 mpg highway by EPA estimate. Cargo volume with rear seat folded must exceed 63 cu. ft. And, pricing for what I’ve defined as “level 1” trim must be less than $40,000. Level 1 (as opposed to “level 2,” which is fully-equipped top-end trim) includes power driver’s seat, touch screen infotainment system, some active safety features (e.g., front collision warning, lane-change warning, active cruise control), and a rear cargo cover and storage net. These things make the car equivalent or superior to my 2007 Highlander.

The filtering has been refined over the last two years. We’re older now, more spoiled by amenities (preferring something closer to “level 2” trim), and our cargo carrying requirements may have diminished somewhat. Now we look at things like easy-to-find LATCH anchors for child car seats (grandchildren!), competitive price, and the newest active safety features unknown in the days of our ’07 Highlander.

Step One of our five step shopping process was to assess our current needs. It’s looking like we’ll go for a fancier, smaller, more economical vehicle with comfortable accommodation for growing families. But a big tax bill this year and Trump’s threatened tariffs on imported cars make us wary of purchase price, too. We have completed Step One.

Step Two was the follow-up. We looked at the market. What were the choices? This is where my “crossover shopping” spreadsheet became the tool. The 15 vehicles this year from Ford, GM, Honda, Hyundai, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Subaru, Toyota, and Volkswagen all meet my threshold requirements (which have changed each year). Each contender has certain strengths and weaknesses; the best in class fuel economy goes to the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, next best is the Toyota RAV4 Hybrid. Roomiest is also the Outlander (PHEV version), next roomiest is the new Subaru Forester. Lowest price for comparably equipped models, Ford Escape (unfortunately, made in Mexico, may be subject to those tariffs); next lowest, Honda CR-V (more domestic content than Ford!). Active safety features like blind spot monitoring, active cruise control, and automatic emergency braking are options on many entrants in this segment, but standard across the line on Honda CR-V, Nissan Rogue, and both Subarus, Forester and Outback. We are now poised to begin Step Three.

This step will determine which trade-offs are worthwhile. We may sacrifice less important things, like power passenger seat, or faster 0-60 mph acceleration (measured in tenths of a second). But things like accessibility of LATCH anchors may be more important – or the angle of opening for rear doors (there is variability here). Much of this detail information can be found in reviews, such as Car & Driver blog, or Edmunds, and are reflected in my spreadsheet. We will then visit dealerships (and the annual Washington Auto Show). Look and feel of the contenders will become the most important factor, things like dash layout, interior materials quality and finish, styling. 

Step Four will narrow the field to test-drive candidates. We will not test drive all 15 entries in the spreadsheet. We may not even visit dealerships representing all the manufacturers. Hyundai has relatively poor EPA ratings, whereas Mitsubishi and Toyota are at the top there, but lack other features -- reliability for Mitsubishi, rear seat passenger accessibility for Toyota RAV4.

The final decision constitutes Step Five. It will be made from a combination of impressions garnered in the first four steps. And, it may well be that the clincher is the personal touch from the salesperson at a specific dealership. Our last car purchase – a Chevy Volt – was ultimately decided based on the incredible knowledge of PHEV Voltec engineering, combined with personal charm, of the salesman we dealt with at Koons GM Corner Tysons (one Mark Gomez).

Other decisive factors include a business assessment of the manufacturer -- how long will Mitsubishi survive in U.S. market? How about ethics at VW or GM? (Scandals have affected both companies recently). The design of the manufacturer’s cars also conveys how badly they want me as a customer. In GM’s favor, they have three vehicles that meet all the requirements to be included in my spreadsheet, no other manufacturer has more than two. My wife has a much stronger aesthetic/social appreciation for what she wants in our driveway. That, more than strategic financial concerns, is why we have eliminated all the “luxury” brands from our potential candidates. Similarly, brand images might narrow the GM entrants to one – Chevy Equinox (eliminating both Buick and GMC). But that would mean two Chevrolets in our driveway. (What is this? Flint, Michigan, ca. 1965?)

Not a trivial matter, this final decision. It’s a car we may keep until we cease driving. The last car we own? What a weighty thought!

Car Shopping, 2018

The Washington Auto Show

William Sundwick

My biggest challenge of the Washington Auto Show was meeting up with my wife. She beat me there by over twenty minutes – Metro from Capitol Hill was faster than traffic from Northern Virginia during afternoon rush hour. The Walter E. Washington Convention Center is spread over two buildings and nearly six square blocks. Most of its entrances were closed. How could I get in? Which building?

Frantic texts trying to describe our respective locations in the cavernous complex resulted only in both of us simultaneously finding helpful staff to guide us to where the other had said they were! Eventually, after clarifying who was to remain stationary, we met. The problem seemed to be that both our descriptions made it seem like we were in the same place (ticket sales), when we were really in two different buildings.

Why Did We Come?

What business did we have at the 2018 Washington Auto Show, anyway? We weren’t exactly desperate for a new car – although, after eleven years, our 2007 Toyota Highlander is starting to look like it needs replacement. But, these days, 85,000 miles is nothing. The real reason we claim to be shopping is nothing more than my fetish for new cars and fascination with the vagaries of automobile marketing. Can’t kick the habit, no matter how hard I try!

Of course, there were the exotics and special interest cars on display – up on the third level of the Convention Center – good for some “Wow” exclamations, and photo-ops. Bentleys and Rolls-Royces, Ferraris, Lamborghinis, and McLarens. 

We had been informed by posters at the entrance, however, that neither Cadillac nor Mercedes were exhibiting this year. They must have calculated there were no sales to be gained from participation. Slightly mysterious, since BMW, Porsche and Audi were clearly visible, and those exotics on the third floor were also sponsored by authorized dealers.

Shopping for more mundane transportation needs was our excuse for attending, though. We saved the fun and photo-ops until the end.

The Research

Performing due diligence through online research is my job. Reducing my range of choices based on practicality is my wife’s job. Due diligence took the form of a spreadsheet based upon my research. We knew which market segment interested us (midsize crossovers), to which we added the somewhat meaningless requirement that whatever the replacement for our Highlander would be, it must have at least the same level of features it has. I quickly discovered, however, that NO midsize crossover sold in 2018 is as spartan as our 2007 Highlander! And, prices have risen accordingly. (One feature noticeably lacking from all 2018 contenders, however: a cassette tape player in the audio system. I don’t even think they have CD players, anymore. My ’07 Highlander’s JBL has both).

I read and summarized reviews of various models for my spreadsheet, and collected data on cargo volume, curb weight, fuel economy, horsepower/torque ratings of engines, 0-60 mph acceleration times, and price ranges based on each make’s “Build and Price” web page. My wife dutifully went over all the data in my spreadsheet. Her job was to pass judgement based on the numbers: “That costs too much! That’s horrible gas mileage! Why do we need a V6? I don’t want to drive anything that big – forget the three-row seating vehicles!” She knew her role well.

The dynamics became clear. When we started seeing and sitting in the various contenders at the Show, we both knew we would leave with a much smaller list -- if we wait until next year, there will be more choices.

The midsize crossover segment of the market is very large these days – and very hot in sales. My spreadsheet, in its final form before the show, contained 22 different vehicles. But, after spending more than four hours at the show, and discussing what we learned, our list now contains eight vehicles – all with only two rows of seating. No hybrids on it, yet fuel economy will be the same or better than our 2007 Hybrid Highlander – efficiency of all engines has increased that much in the last eleven years (mostly because of advanced turbocharged fours). Cargo volume may be slightly less than our Highlander’s, especially in the five “compact” crossovers on our revised list, but all have roomy and comfortable passenger cabins.

The Finalists and the Market

Here are the eight finalists: five smaller – Chevy Equinox, Ford Escape, Honda CR-V, Subaru Forester, and VW Golf AllTrack. And, three bigger – Ford Edge, Nissan Murano, and Subaru Outback. Near-luxury two-row contenders from Acura and Volvo were eliminated due to “costs too much” criteria, and all three-row crossovers from my original list were eliminated due to some combination of size, price, and fuel economy factors. The GMC Terrain was eliminated because of the brand’s marketing image – it’s a TRUCK brand!

Three different engine configurations exist among the eight finalists: five of them have those little turbo 4s, the two Subarus have their characteristic “boxer” (horizontally opposed) engines, and the Nissan Murano still uses a V6 (it is the most economical of all V6s – EPA rates it at 21/28 mpg).

All contenders have many “active safety” features (using external sensors and actions), like collision avoidance, lane change warning, backup cameras -- unknown eleven years ago except in the most expensive luxury models. And, all eight finalists feature higher quality interior design than our Highlander – mostly leather, heated seats, center-mounted touchscreen for infotainment and climate control. All except Forester offer Apple CarPlay, enabling access to all the apps on our paired iPhones via the infotainment system.

I never assume that the car-buying consumer always makes the right decisions, and my wife is not even aware of market share for the 22 vehicles on my original list. Yet, we seem to have come down to primarily the dominant players in the market. Two exceptions are that at least one of us (me) was really impressed by the Golf AllTrack wagon, despite its relatively modest profile in the U.S. market. And, the Toyota line for 2018 – both Highlander and RAV4 – were nixed by one or both of us, the former due to size (much bigger than our 2007), the latter because of inferior “fit and finish” compared with its main competitors (looks cheaper, less classy). Toyota may well remedy the RAV4 problem next year with a new generation due in 2019. But all our finalists, except that VW, are strong contenders in the most competitive market segment existing today. Could it be consumers really are intelligent beings? Or, is it that we have now sunk to the level of average auto-buying consumer?

Our next step will probably be arranging test drives at dealers. But, there is no current schedule allocating time for that adventure. We may delay until the 2019 model year, with its new choices, before taking such action. But, the Auto Show was fun – first time we’ve indulged the annual extravaganza since 2011. We practically closed the place down shortly before 10:00 on a Friday night!

Appendix

Crossover Shopping, 2018 – The Eight Finalists (Alphabetically), photo of spreadsheet